Opening foreign exchange trading software, many foreign trade professionals have recently sighed, "The US dollar exchange rate has dropped again." As of January 20, 2026, the USD/CNY exchange rate stood at 6.9610, falling slightly by 0.0431% on the day. Looking back at the whole year of 2025, the US Dollar Index dropped by 9.8% cumulatively, marking the largest annual decline since 2003, sliding from the 110 level at the beginning of the year to around 98, while the RMB steadily returned to a strong range. For export enterprises mainly settled in US dollars, this round of exchange rate decline is by no means a simple numerical fluctuation, but a "major test" that directly erodes profits and tests operational resilience.

The impact of the exchange rate decline on export enterprises has long permeated the entire operational chain. The most intuitive effect is profit shrinkage: 1 million US dollars could be exchanged for 7.3 million RMB at the beginning of the year, but now only about 6.99 million RMB, with a single order exchange rate loss of 310,000 RMB in just one year. For enterprises with an annual export volume of 10 million US dollars, the exchange rate factor alone reduces earnings by 3.1 million RMB. Coupled with rising raw material and logistics costs, some low-margin orders even face the risk of loss. What's more tricky is the mismatch between order cycles and exchange rate fluctuations—most export orders have a collection cycle of 3 to 6 months, and the profits calculated at the time of signing may vanish due to RMB appreciation when the payment is due. The owner of an electronic factory calculated an account: for a 1 million US dollar order with a 3-month cycle, the expected inflow was 7.2 million RMB at a signing exchange rate of 7.2; if the exchange rate drops to 6.9 when due, 300,000 RMB in profits will evaporate. If the profit margin is only 5%, the entire order will turn from profit to loss. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations increase the difficulty of quoting new orders. A quotation valid for 3 months may face losses after 1 month, and small and medium-sized enterprises with weak bargaining power struggle to transfer costs through price increases, falling into a dilemma of "losing money if quoting, losing orders if not quoting."

Faced with the new normal of weak US dollar fluctuations, instead of worrying about "how much more the exchange rate will drop," export enterprises should take the initiative to build a risk prevention and control system, and safeguard profits from three dimensions: tools, contracts, and operations.

This is the most direct means to cope with exchange rate fluctuations, and enterprises of different sizes can choose on demand. For small and medium-sized enterprises, forward exchange settlement is the most cost-effective basic tool. After signing an export contract, they agree on a future exchange settlement rate with the bank. Regardless of changes in the market exchange rate when due, they can exchange at the agreed price, with an operation cost of only 0.3% to 0.5% of the contract amount. After signing a 500,000 US dollar order, a stationery enterprise in Ningbo handled a 6-month forward exchange settlement to lock in an exchange rate of 7.0. Even if the RMB appreciates to 6.8 half a year later, it can still exchange an additional 100,000 RMB. Larger enterprises with professional financial teams can choose foreign exchange options, paying a small premium to obtain a flexible "floor without a cap" space—if the exchange rate improves when due, they can abandon the right to exercise to enjoy profits; if the exchange rate deteriorates, they can exercise the right to avoid losses, balancing risk and profit potential. Recently, Qingdao Impulse announced its plan to carry out a 2 billion yuan foreign exchange hedging business, using a combination of tools such as forward exchange settlement and sales, and foreign exchange options to prevent exchange rate risks and stabilize financial conditions, setting a reference example for export enterprises.

Enterprises should incorporate exchange rate factors into contracts during negotiations to avoid passive losses. On the one hand, they can negotiate to adopt cross-border RMB settlement, directly skipping the US dollar exchange link and eliminating the impact of exchange rate fluctuations from the source. Currently, cross-border RMB settlement accounts for 24% of China's foreign trade settlement, with high acceptance in Southeast Asian countries. Although it may be necessary to offer a 1% to 2% concession as compensation to customers, it can simplify processes and reduce exchange costs in the long run. On the other hand, add exchange rate risk sharing clauses to contracts, stipulating that the price remains unchanged when the exchange rate fluctuation is within ±3%, and the difference is shared proportionally by both buyers and sellers when exceeding this range, reasonably splitting risks to avoid a single party bearing all losses. For medium and long-term large-value orders, a phased price adjustment mechanism can also be agreed to dynamically adjust the settlement price according to exchange rate trends, locking in reasonable profits for both parties.

Exchange rate fluctuations are both challenges and opportunities to optimize the operational structure. Enterprises can appropriately expand non-US dollar settlement markets, incorporate currencies such as the euro and British pound into the settlement system, diversify risks of single currency depreciation through currency diversification, and even try quoting and collecting in local small currencies for customers in Africa and Southeast Asia to adapt to different market needs. At the same time, they should improve product added value and bargaining power, get rid of the "low-price competition" model through technological research and development and brand building. When products have core competitiveness, it is easier to negotiate price increases or adjust settlement terms with customers, reasonably transferring exchange rate costs. In addition, enterprises need to establish a regular exchange rate management mechanism. The financial department should conduct monthly exchange rate stress tests, set a 3% net profit exchange loss red line, and sales personnel must attach exchange rate fluctuation clauses when quoting, forming a full-process risk control awareness.

The current decline of the US dollar is the result of the resonance of Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical games, and global economic pattern adjustments. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and two-way exchange rate fluctuations will become the "new normal" for export enterprise operations. For export enterprises, instead of speculating on exchange rate trends, it is better to establish a scientific response system—using financial tools to lock in risks, using contract terms to share pressure, and using operational upgrading to enhance confidence. Only by proactively adapting to fluctuations and making advance preparations for prevention and control can enterprises safeguard their profit base amid exchange rate changes and maintain stable development in international competition.