Since the beginning of 2026, affected by multiple factors such as the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have experienced an epic surge, with an increase of more than 60% since the start of the year. Brent crude oil prices once approached $85 per barrel, and Goldman Sachs even warned that if the disruption of transportation in the strait persists, oil prices may exceed $100 per barrel. For foreign trade enterprises that are highly dependent on logistics and transportation as well as raw material imports, this oil price storm is not a distant international news, but a real test that directly penetrates the entire chain of orders, costs and operations. So, what does the oil price rise mean for foreign trade enterprises? Is it a dilemma of overall pressure, or a hidden opportunity for transformation?

As the "blood" of modern industry, the transmission path of oil price fluctuations is extremely clear: rising international oil prices → rising costs of logistics, raw materials, energy, etc. → increased pressure on all links of foreign trade enterprises' procurement, production and delivery → compressed profit space and adjusted market competitiveness. China's dependence on imported crude oil exceeds 70%, and about 40%-50% of imported crude oil needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making Chinese foreign trade enterprises far more sensitive to oil price fluctuations than those in other countries. Different from short-term market fluctuations, this oil price rise is accompanied by the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, and its impact is persistent and transmissible, testing the risk resistance ability of foreign trade enterprises.

For the vast majority of foreign trade enterprises, the primary impact of rising oil prices is the sharp increase in costs. Coupled with the chain reactions in orders and operations, the pressure to survive is further increased, which is particularly evident in small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises.

First of all, logistics costs have ushered in a "surge tide", becoming a "heavy burden" on enterprises. Oil prices directly determine the cost of marine fuel, and maritime transportation is the most important transportation method for foreign trade enterprises. Fuel costs account for 30%-50% of the total costs of shipping enterprises. For every 10% increase in oil prices, shipping profits will fluctuate by 15%-30%. Affected by the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers are forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, extending the voyage by 10-20 days. This not only increases fuel consumption, but also leads to a sharp rise in maritime transportation costs. At the same time, the premium of shipping war risk has increased significantly, with the premium for a single voyage of a single ship rising from 250,000 US dollars to 375,000 US dollars, and the war risk for some routes even surging by 4 times, further pushing up logistics costs. A boss in Yiwu who exports daily necessities encountered the dilemma of 4 containers being stranded at the strait entrance. The demurrage and storage fees increased like a snowball, and overseas customers even threatened to abandon the goods if they were overdue, putting him in a dilemma.

Secondly, the transmission of raw material costs has a major impact on energy-intensive foreign trade industries. Crude oil is the core raw material for many foreign trade export products. The raw material prices of plastics, chemical fibers, rubber, chemicals and other industries are directly linked to oil prices. The rise in oil prices will be quickly transmitted along the industrial chain, leading to a sharp increase in the production costs of these industries. For example, the cost of chemical fiber raw materials has soared by 15%-20% due to the rise in oil prices, and the raw material cost of the plastic packaging industry has surged by 18% within a week. A boss in Ningbo who is engaged in plastic packaging foreign trade lost 1 million yuan only due to the difference in raw material prices because he signed a long-term order at the end of 2025 with a locked export price. In addition, the rise in oil prices has also pushed up the production costs of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, indirectly affecting the procurement costs of agricultural product foreign trade enterprises. The CIF price of low-unit-price crops such as soybeans may be increased by 20%.

Finally, order and operational risks have intensified, and the profit space of enterprises has continued to shrink. On the one hand, the imported inflation caused by the rise in oil prices will inhibit the consumption capacity of major export markets such as Europe and the United States, leading to weak foreign trade orders. At the same time, the order risks in conflict regions such as the Middle East have increased sharply, and enterprises are facing problems such as difficulty in collecting payments and delayed delivery. Many enterprises have been forced to suspend new orders in the Middle East to avoid risks. On the other hand, the rise in oil prices has caused the RMB to come under phased pressure, and the two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate has intensified, increasing the difficulty of enterprises' foreign exchange locking operations. At the same time, the capital chain of overseas customers has become tight, and the default probability of small and medium-sized customers has increased, further compressing the profit space of enterprises. Some enterprises even fall into the dilemma of "losing money if they take orders, and dying if they don't take orders".

 

The rise in oil prices is not entirely negative. For some foreign trade enterprises, this industry reshuffle has instead brought new development opportunities, forcing enterprises to optimize their structure, transform and upgrade, and achieve high-quality development.

New energy-related foreign trade enterprises have ushered in a "dividend period". High oil prices have increased the use cost of fuel vehicles, highlighting the economic advantages of new energy vehicles, promoting the growth of global demand for new energy vehicles, and enabling Chinese new energy vehicle foreign trade enterprises to expand their overseas market share and accelerate the layout of product exports. At the same time, the rise in oil prices has also promoted the acceleration of global energy transformation, increasing the overseas demand for new energy products such as photovoltaic and wind power. Relevant foreign trade enterprises have ushered in development opportunities. Although the cost of some upstream raw materials for new energy has increased due to the rise in oil prices, in the long run, the trend of energy transformation provides them with a broad market space.

Opportunities for supply chain optimization and industrial upgrading are prominent. The rise in oil prices has forced foreign trade enterprises to re-evaluate their supply chain layout, reduce their dependence on a single raw material origin and a single transportation route, and expand diversified procurement channels and logistics routes. For example, increase the purchase volume of crude oil from Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other countries, avoid high-risk routes in the Persian Gulf, and use alternative transportation methods such as the China-Europe Railway Express to improve the stability and resilience of the supply chain. At the same time, enterprises are forced to seek benefits from internal management, promote energy conservation and consumption reduction through technological transformation, optimize the production structure, give priority to producing high-value-added products that are not sensitive to oil prices, eliminate low-profit and high-energy-consuming products, promote industrial upgrading, and enhance core competitiveness.

There are differentiated opportunities in segmented fields. For coal chemical-related foreign trade enterprises, when oil prices exceed $80 per barrel, the advantage of replacing oil with coal becomes prominent, enterprise profits can be increased by 15%-20%, and the competitiveness of related export products is improved. In addition, to cope with the cost pressure brought by the rise in oil prices, foreign trade enterprises have increased their demand for financial hedging tools such as crude oil futures and options, and relevant financial service foreign trade enterprises have also ushered in development opportunities to help enterprises lock in procurement costs and avoid price fluctuation risks.

Faced with the continuous impact of rising oil prices, foreign trade enterprises can only stand firm in the industry reshuffle and convert pressure into development motivation by taking the initiative to change and respond actively. Combined with the current market situation and enterprise practices, the following suggestions are put forward:

First, optimize the supply chain and logistics layout to reduce cost pressure. On the one hand, expand diversified procurement channels, find alternative raw material suppliers, sign long-term cooperation agreements with core suppliers, lock in raw material prices, and reduce the impact of oil price fluctuations; on the other hand, adjust logistics routes, avoid high-risk routes, reasonably match transportation methods such as maritime transportation and China-Europe Railway Express, optimize transportation schemes, and use logistics platforms to integrate resources to reduce logistics costs. For example, a hardware and electrical foreign trade boss in Quanzhou effectively avoided risks by suspending new orders in the Middle East and focusing on stable markets such as Southeast Asia.

Second, make good use of financial tools to avoid market risks. Actively use derivatives such as crude oil futures and options to carry out hedging, lock in future raw material procurement prices and exchange rates in advance, and avoid risks brought by fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates; at the same time, reasonably control the order payment period, strengthen customer credit evaluation, reduce the risk of payment collection, and adopt the strategy of "cash transactions, small batches, and no credit sales" for high-risk markets to ensure the stability of enterprise cash flow.

Third, promote product and industrial upgrading to enhance core competitiveness. Increase R&D investment, optimize product structure, reduce dependence on high-energy-consuming raw materials, develop high-value-added and energy-saving products, enhance product pricing power, and reasonably pass on part of the cost pressure to downstream customers; at the same time, accelerate digital and intelligent transformation, promote energy-saving and consumption-reducing technological transformation, improve production efficiency, digest part of the cost pressure internally, and realize the transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement".

Fourth, seize policy and market opportunities to achieve diversified development. Pay close attention to international oil price trends and geopolitical dynamics, and adjust business strategies in a timely manner; make full use of free trade agreements such as RCEP and CPTPP, optimize the origin layout, and reduce tariff costs; seize market opportunities such as new energy and energy transformation, expand emerging markets, achieve market diversification, reduce dependence on a single market, and enhance the risk resistance ability of enterprises.

From the perspective of the global energy pattern, oil price fluctuations will become the norm, and factors such as geopolitical conflicts and adjustments in oil-producing countries' policies will continue to affect oil price trends. For foreign trade enterprises, the rise in oil prices is both a "cost test" and a "transformation opportunity". In the short term, enterprises need to focus on cost control and risk avoidance to keep the bottom line of survival; in the long run, only by cultivating their "internal strength", optimizing the supply chain, promoting industrial upgrading, and expanding diversified markets can they stand firm in the complex and changing market environment and achieve sustainable development.

The foreign trade market in 2026 is full of challenges and opportunities, and the rise in oil prices is only one of many tests. For foreign trade enterprises, there is no need to be overly panicked. Instead, they should take the initiative to adapt to market changes, convert pressure into motivation for transformation, seize opportunities in the industry reshuffle, and take their own path of high-quality development.